UK AISI Data Shows Model Time Horizons Scale Sublinearly with Tokens

Oxford philosopher Toby Ord analyzed UK AISI charts showing models' human-equivalent time horizons grow as a sublinear power law with training tokens. He computed each model's gamma exponent, finding newer models are not just shifting the curve but improving its slope.

2026-10-09 ~ 2026-10-09 · 4 related posts

• AI models' human-equivalent time horizons scale sub-linearly with tokens, per UK AISI — tobyordoxford · 2026-10-09
• UK AISI chart suggests AI time horizons scale as a power law with training tokens — tobyordoxford · 2026-10-09
• Toby Ord extracts per-model gamma values from AISI chart to price 10x time-horizon gains — tobyordoxford · 2026-10-09
• Toby Ord: Newer AI Models Show Improving Scaling Slope γ, Not Just Curve Shifts — tobyordoxford · 2026-10-09