Only ~7 of 100 drugs entering human trials reach patients, pharma veteran explains attrition
TinfoilTricorn · x · 2026-10-08
Amid the bio hype ($1.8B funding announcements, virtual cells), an industry insider explains 'attrition' — drugs that die on the way to patients:
- Only 7 of 100 drugs entering first human trials reach patients; for cancer, fewer than 5%, an all-time low and still falling
- Most die in Phase 2, where only 28% pass
- Causes: 40-50% don't work in humans, 30% too toxic, 10-15% pharmacokinetic failures, 10% business reasons
- Nearly half fail because results in dishes and mice didn't translate — 'the drug wasn't broken, our prediction was'
A reality check for current AI+bio optimism.
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