a16z's 100-chart State of Markets II: tech drives 76% of S&P 500 earnings growth
gaganghotra_ · x · 2026-10-02
a16z partner David George released State of Markets II, a chartapalooza of 100+ charts covering tech and capital markets in 1H'26.
- 98% of US households aren't paying for AI yet, leaving massive headroom;
- Tech contributed roughly 76% of the S&P 500's total earnings growth in 2026 (as of late August);
- Core thesis: "Tech is the everything cycle" — tech has replaced durable goods (houses, cars, appliances) as the defining force of the economic cycle;
- The year's big rotation is "from bits to atoms": capital and attention shifting from software toward hardware.
Related event: a16z's State of Markets II: Agents Now Consume 5x Human Token Volume(8 posts)→
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