OpenAI models' 80% time horizon on research tasks is just 15 minutes — takeoff gap analysis
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-09-29
Toby Ord highlights that OpenAI's internal models show only 15-minute 80% time horizons on real research tasks, far below METR's software-engineering benchmarks. Key takeoff metric: per-point ECI research productivity gain — 15% needed (Elasticity Institute), vs 9% (Anthropic survey) and 3% (OpenAI data). Tracking this gap is the best signal for whether takeoff is approaching.
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