AI Takeoff Analysis: OpenAI Models Finish 80% of Research Tasks in 15 Minutes

Toby Ord's takeoff analysis finds OpenAI models complete 80% of real research tasks within about 15 minutes, while an Elasticity Institute paper estimates each ECI point requires 15% research productivity gains — far above the 9% reported internally at Anthropic.

2026-09-29 ~ 2026-09-29 · 2 related posts

• OpenAI models' 80% time horizon on research tasks is just 15 minutes — takeoff gap analysis — tobyordoxford · 2026-09-29
• Take-off may need 15% productivity gain per capability point, Anthropic survey suggests 9% — ben_j_todd · 2026-09-29