Yudkowsky Rejects P(doom): It Conflates P(ASI) With P(ruin|ASI)
jankulveit · x · 2026-09-21
Responding to criticism over the 'doomers' label, Eli Yudkowsky explains one reason he dislikes the P(doom) concept: it conflates P(ruin|ASI) and P(ASI). On his estimate, if ASI is built by anything remotely resembling current techniques—or managed by current AI company personnel—P(ruin|ASI) is simply 'Yes'. Jan Kulveit counters that Yudkowsky himself popularized the doomer label through awkward memetic engineering like 'AI notkilleveryoneism', warning that forfeiting control over naming your position hands it to your enemies.
Related event: Yudkowsky Critiques P(doom) for Conflating Two Probabilities(2 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Researcher willing to bet $100K the intelligence explosion won't happen next year — NathanpmYoung · 2026-11-12
- ICLR reviewer: the worst parts of my job are reading and answering AI slop — chhaviyadav_ · 2026-11-12
- Fermi paradox twist: advanced civilizations may go digital after developing AI — VraserX · 2026-11-12
- Mark Cuban: AI could make healthcare costs 'drop like a rock' — alvelda · 2026-11-12
- Researcher's paradox: if AI makes everyone unemployed, who pays for tokens? — prajdabre · 2026-11-12
- Dear ImGui Creator ocornut: AI Empowers Mediocre Makers to Produce More Mediocrity, Faster — rms80 · 2026-11-12