Researcher willing to bet $100K the intelligence explosion won't happen next year
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-11-12
MatthewJBar says he'd comfortably bet up to $100K that the intelligence explosion won't happen next year — but only with clear resolution criteria measuring difficult real-world milestones, not benchmark scores. He notes this isn't a definite commitment, highlighting how AI forecasting debates are increasingly settling on real-money bets over vague predictions.
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