Those '10% chance AI wipes out humanity' figures are subjective guesses, not science
bennash · x · 2026-09-20
A viral argument holds that when someone claims there's a 10% or 20% chance AI will wipe out humanity, you should ask what data or scientific calculation produced that percentage. Digging deeper, these numbers turn out not to be scientifically established probabilities but subjective estimates based on personal judgment — and a personal belief doesn't become scientific evidence just because someone attaches a percentage to it.
Related event: Researcher Mocks Arbitrary AI Doom Probabilities With Reversal(3 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Talking to normies about AI: fear, confusion, and a widening tech divide — ritakozlov · 2026-09-20
- Why not regulate the harness (software) instead of controlling model inference? — TraditionalWait9150 · 2026-09-20
- Prediction: open on-prem models to handle majority of sensitive inference by 2031 — QuixiAI · 2026-09-20
- Dev: no one who understands how LLMs work can genuinely believe they're conscious — iamKierraD · 2026-09-20
- Seven shifts in how we use AI: from writing prompts to setting goals — The AI Daily Brief · 2026-09-20
- Nature Report Signals AI Pressure on Data Analysis and Modeling Jobs — mdancho84 · 2026-09-20