Ethan Mollick: Even If AI Development Stopped Today, We'd Need Years to Catch Up to Current Models
emollick · x · 2026-09-19
In his One Useful Thing essay, Ethan Mollick argues the gap between what current models can do and what people actually use them for is vast — even if AI development stopped today, we'd spend years catching up.
Key points:
- New GPT-6 Astra and Fable 5.1 are already capable of transformative impact across much of the economy, reliably doing weeks of human work when properly guided.
- Examples: GPT-6 Astra turned 1977 text adventure Zork into a playable full 3D action-adventure game, inventing all visuals from prose; Fable 5.1 reconstructed Umberto Eco's tens-of-thousands-book library in 3D from a dozen videos, bookshelf photos and two catalogues.
- Closing the overhang relies on four advantages: deep knowledge, wide knowledge, taste, and agency. Focusing only on future AI risks ignores how capable today's models already are.
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