AI Growth Bet: Per-Capita GDP Growing 15% Above Peak Has Just 0.9% Historical Odds
RishiBommasani · x · 2026-09-19
The Ben Moll–Lukasz Rachel AI growth wager gains context: across 211 countries and 11,109 country-year pairs since 1962, per-capita GDP growth exceeding 15% above the prior peak has only 0.9% probability, and the lone frontier-country case (Ireland 2015) is a measurement artifact — it has essentially never happened. Meanwhile Gabriel Unger offers 10:1 odds on the slow side winning and laments that Silicon Valley forecasters like Ed Zitron and Dario rarely update after failed predictions.
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