The Holistic Judgment Conceit: Why Expert Intuition Keeps Losing to Simple Statistical Models
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-09-18
Cremieux Recueil revisits Paul Meehl's 1954 classic Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: across nearly all early studies, clinicians' holistic intuitive judgments were beaten by simple statistical models — a pattern the author says reflects arrogance rather than expertise, and one that recurs in interviews and other human evaluations. The essay argues holistic evaluation is fit for machines, not people, with implications for how expert review in AI assessment should be structured.
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