Contractualist case for fairness constraints on probabilistic inference, contra Bayesian decision theory
xuanalogue · x · 2026-09-18
Researcher xuanalogue outlines a possibly novel contractualist argument for fairness constraints on probabilistic inference, pushing back against pure Bayesian decision theory, inspired by formalizing parts of Renee Jorgensen's "Algorithms and the Individual in Criminal Law". In follow-up discussion, he notes the argument shows some statistical evidence should be inadmissible on fairness grounds, and adds that the picture of doomers swaying public opinion merely by citing p(doom) is outdated.
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