Polymarket Prices Only 43% Odds That Grok 5 Ships by Year-End
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-15
Polymarket's contract on Grok 5 releasing by year-end sits around 43%: just 13% by end of October, 23% by end of November, and roughly 54-66% for December 31. Resolution rules require a model explicitly named Grok 5 or clearly recognized as xAI's next flagship — Grok 4.6, 4.7 or similar variants don't count, nor do task-specialized or cost-efficiency models — and the release must be publicly accessible (open beta or open waitlist counts; closed beta doesn't). This follows SpaceXAI's livestreamed demo of building an entire company from scratch with Grok Bot.
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