Polymarket prices 13% odds of AI bubble bursting by end of 2026, with strict resolution rules
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-14
Polymarket has launched an "AI bubble burst by...?" prediction market expiring December 31, 2026, currently pricing "Yes" at roughly 14.5¢ (13% implied odds) with over $2.95M in volume.
Resolution is strict: it requires at least 3 of the following within a 90-day window — NVDA down 50% from ATH, SOXX down 40%, OpenAI or Anthropic bankruptcy, OpenAI acquisition, H100 rental price at or below $1.00 for five consecutive days on the SiliconData Silicon Index, or a 50% collapse in TSMC/ASML/Broadcom/Arista/SMCI stock. A quantified market take on AI downturn risk.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Against AI Bubble Bursting Before End of 2026(8 posts)→
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