ramez: generational jumps pay for 2-3 orders of magnitude of tokens, suspects heavy math RL

ramez · x · 2026-09-14

Responding to tobyordoxford's scaling-curve analysis, ramez agrees the worse slope is interesting but argues the dramatic between-generation jump pays for 2-3 orders of magnitude of tokens. He suspects the model was heavily RL-trained on formal math, making gains possibly math-specific. Key point: bigger baseline jumps can offset declining inference-scaling returns.

Related event: Toby Ord Analyzes New Reasoning Scaling Curves: Halved Slope but Massive Generational Leaps(5 posts)→

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