New Model's Scaling Curve Halves in Slope but Shows Bigger Jumps

Analysis of new reasoning scaling curves shows slope halved versus o1/o3 on AIME, yet intergenerational jumps are larger; Ramez suggests the gains justify 2-3 orders of magnitude more tokens, likely from math-heavy RL.

2026-09-14 ~ 2026-09-14 · 5 related posts

• New scaling curve has half the slope: 10,000x compute for 20%-to-80%, but bigger generational jumps — tobyordoxford · 2026-09-14
• ramez: generational jumps pay for 2-3 orders of magnitude of tokens, suspects heavy math RL — ramez · 2026-09-14
• Toby Ord: 10x more RLVR compute cuts tokens-to-target ~3x; gains may be math-specific — tobyordoxford · 2026-09-14
• New generation's jump equals 100x tokens on old model, like four generations in the o1-to-GPT-5 era — tobyordoxford · 2026-09-14
• Halved slope may be an artifact of higher-difficulty-variance dataset, log scaling still holds — tobyordoxford · 2026-09-14