Toby Ord puts ~1-in-3 odds on dramatic AI takeoff from recursive self-improvement by 2030
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-09-14
Oxford senior research fellow Toby Ord offered his take on Anthropic's claims around recursive self-improvement: he thinks RSI probably won't drive a dramatic takeoff of AI capabilities by 2030, but puts a decent chance on it — around 1 in 3.
His key point: even if the likely outcome is no takeoff, the sheer stakes mean we should take that probability extremely seriously.
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