Toby Ord puts ~1-in-3 odds on dramatic AI takeoff from recursive self-improvement by 2030
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-09-14
Oxford senior research fellow Toby Ord offered his take on Anthropic's claims around recursive self-improvement: he thinks RSI probably won't drive a dramatic takeoff of AI capabilities by 2030, but puts a decent chance on it — around 1 in 3.
His key point: even if the likely outcome is no takeoff, the sheer stakes mean we should take that probability extremely seriously.
More from AGI Musings
- Ethan Mollick on AI and work: 'You're a hand-weaver in a world of power looms' — emollick · 2026-10-30
- YC experiment: Claude agents formed democracies while GPT agents formed hives — soumitrashukla9 · 2026-10-30
- Vercel founder Rauch: trust is the deepest moat for a post-AGI business — soleio · 2026-10-30
- Scattered Across AI Assistants: A New Kind of Cognitive Failure Nobody Has a Prior For — manosaie · 2026-10-30
- a16z partners: 10-20M people drive $150-200B in token spend, and AI workspaces will eat the browser — petergyang · 2026-10-30
- Professor Who Turned Down OpenAI in 2018 Reflects on PhD Anxiety in the AI Era — SharonYixuanLi · 2026-10-30