Hinton compresses his AGI timeline again: now 'maybe 10 years, maybe less'
Chris_Armstrong · x · 2026-09-14
Geoffrey Hinton has successively shortened his estimates for how much time we have: from 30-50 years, to 10-20 years, and now 'maybe 10 years, maybe less.' He notes many people at Anthropic think it will be sooner.
He admits nobody really knows — the point isn't the exact deadline, but that the planning assumption keeps shrinking. He calls the situation fairly urgent and argues strategies shouldn't depend on the longest estimate being right.
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