p(doom) debate: 50% risk routes through institutional failure, not alignment progress

jd_pressman · x · 2026-09-12

A p(doom) discussion: one poster notes people usually mean replacement by a successor species or paperclipper, while the reply argues a 50% doom estimate mostly doesn't route through alignment progress as the core bottleneck — that bottleneck is institutional.

Related event: AI safety researchers debate p(doom): jd_pressman breaks down extinction probabilities(5 posts)→

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