AIRO launches automated catastrophic AI risk forecasts, matching top human forecasters
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-09-12
The Forecasting Research team released AIRO (Automated AI Risk Outlook), a dashboard of automated catastrophic-risk forecasts that tracks what frontier models predict over time.
- Authors argue frontier models already forecast as well as good human forecasters and will soon be better
- Forecasts are conditional on Epoch AI's Capabilities Index and span 6-month to 2100 windows
- Incident-counting rules were refreshed on each elicitation date; full historical data is downloadable
Related event: AIRO Dashboard Forecasts AI Catastrophic Risk with Frontier Models(4 posts)→
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