277 experts gave AI just 10% odds of cracking a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027
haider1 · x · 2026-09-11
The LEAP panel's Wave 2 'AI for Science' report aggregates forecasts from 277 experts, 58 superforecasters, and 1022 members of the public (Aug-Sep 2025).
- Millennium Prize: experts estimated only 10% probability that AI would solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027; some superforecasters put just 60% by 2040
- Other questions: share of 'AI-engaged' publications in physics/materials/medicine by 2030, AI-discovered drug sales, AI's share of US electricity consumption, and expert consensus on cognitive limitations of frontier AI
The poster notes humans remain bad at predicting exponential progress.
Related event: AI Solves Millennium Problem Far Ahead of Expert Forecasts(4 posts)→
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