Experts Gave AI Only 10% Odds of Solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027
haider1 · x · 2026-09-11
@haider1 points to another failure of exponential-forecasting: in 2025, so-called experts estimated just a 10% chance that AI would solve — or substantially assist in solving — a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027, with some even putting it at only 60% by 2040, estimates reality has apparently blown past.
Related event: AI Solves Millennium Problem Far Ahead of Expert Forecasts(4 posts)→
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