Ben Recht's forecasting lecture argues probability conflates frequency and belief
beenwrekt · x · 2026-09-10
In Class 5 of his graduate seminar "Forecasting: A Critical Retrospective," Ben Recht argues that probability is unavoidable in forecasting but used far too casually. Using weather prediction as an example, he shows how data-assimilation outputs get interpreted as probability distributions, sampled into future scenarios, and then transmuted into beliefs about outcomes — a slippery shift between frequencies and beliefs with no well-specified formal rules. Drawing on Paul Meehl and Rudolf Carnap, he distinguishes logical probability from other notions and contends every applied probability course should explicitly call out this transmutation.
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