Binary bits: 20% robot share in manual jobs unlikely before 2035, very unlikely before 2030
binarybits · x · 2026-09-09
binarybits proposes picking concrete manual jobs — short-order cooks, retail shelf stockers, hotel housekeepers, bricklayers, trash collectors — and forecasting when robots hit 20% share. His call: unlikely before 2035, and very unlikely before 2030.
More from AGI Musings
- Counterintuitive take: AI degrades thinking most for those who don't use it — jd_pressman · 2026-10-27
- Mathematics as an experimental science: Marc Lelarge to talk LLM-driven math experiments at ENS — marc_lelarge · 2026-10-27
- People still don't want to read AI-generated books, says AI ethicist — LuizaJarovsky · 2026-10-27
- Dario Amodei and Demis Hassabis both point to AGI in 2026-2027 in viral talk — mtizard · 2026-10-27
- Microsoft layoffs and AI job losses: is tech eating its own market? — skatejraney · 2026-10-27
- BCI researcher: augmentation won't guarantee immortality, but beats the alternative — danfaggella · 2026-10-27