Hindsight bias warps how we judge two-year-old AI predictions
itaisher · x · 2026-09-08
Responding to whether predicting today's model abilities two years ago was 'insane sci-fi hype', itaisher argues conditioning on present knowledge misleads: like praising a bettor who happened to nail an exact score, we forget no one could have known. David Manheim adds the bias cuts both ways — outsiders selectively attribute views to the EA community, while communities claim credit for predictions members never made, misread group views, and speak on others' behalf.
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