Study: Generative AI Has Already Cost Philippines' BPO Industry ~250,000 Jobs
sebkrier · x · 2026-09-05
A working paper by Nico Ravanilla combines the Anthropic Economic Index with Philippine labor force data to measure generative AI's impact on the economy most dependent on exported services.
Key findings:
- By mid-2025, employment growth has slowed in the most AI-exposed provinces, industries, and municipalities, amounting to roughly 250,000 foregone jobs
- Province groups with different AI exposure grew identically through 2022, then diverged as US client firms adopted AI, opening a 16 log point growth gap
- Adjustment happens through reduced hiring rather than layoffs: wages and hours unchanged
- Displaced workers enter unemployment; overseas work has not absorbed them
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