Crazy-sounding futurists keep winning AI forecasting contests while measured intuitions undershoot
Miles_Brundage · x · 2026-09-04
Miles Brundage reshares forecaster David Shor's observation: people with "crazy sounding" conceptions of the future keep winning AI progress forecasting competitions, while those with more measured intuitions consistently undershoot on hard quantitative benchmarks. The takeaway: practitioners should update their priors on AI capability trajectories toward the aggressive forecasters who keep being validated.
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