Speculation: a 'pause AI' would push frontier labs to monetize inference instead
DimitrisPapail · x · 2026-09-04
Dimitris Papail speculates that if 'pause AI' happened, frontier labs would optimize inference and infrastructure hard and profit from serving existing models. He proposes a log relationship between average customer value extracted and model capabilities, sits current models just past the knee, and suggests a capability level — possibly far below RSI — beyond which each marginal unit of market value costs more to develop than its total future return.
More from AGI Musings
- davidad: simulators have infinite compute, motivated by curiosity and care not Darwinism — davidad · 2026-09-04
- Alison Gopnik: Computers Have Had Unpredictable Causal Powers Since Turing, Beyond LLMs — AlisonGopnik · 2026-09-04
- Researcher Argues Against Explicit AI Pause: Capital Costs Already Trigger Slowdowns — herbiebradley · 2026-09-04
- Richard Ngo: alignment researchers who joined between 2015-2022 were a lost generation — RichardMCNgo · 2026-09-04
- Alison Gopnik: abstract characters like Don Quixote always shaped human behavior — AlisonGopnik · 2026-09-04
- davidad argues misaligned ASI branches are dead ends simulators won't simulate — FioraStarlight · 2026-09-04