Nvidia's CoWoS share seen falling to 45.6% by 2027 as AMD doubles to 19.8%
tengyanAI · x · 2026-09-03
Five supply-chain shifts in AI infrastructure:
- Packaging diversifying: Morgan Stanley estimates Nvidia's share of TSMC CoWoS allocation falls from 53.4% to 45.6% by 2027, while AMD nearly doubles to 19.8%. Google reportedly booked Intel packaging capacity for 3M+ TPUs. Advanced packaging is becoming a contested, multi-supplier market.
- NAND going critical: Samsung starts mass production on a new line in Q4 with expected price hikes of 35-40%.
- HBM4 shipments begin: SK hynix has started mass HBM4 shipments to Nvidia; a live price test via Korean customs data within 30 days will show whether HBM pricing accelerates through the generational transition.
- Optical visibility extends: $AAOI and Fabrinet both report longer order horizons, though "we expect" differs from booked backlog.
- Contrarian signal: co-packaged optics easing from tight to balanced — loosening constraints can shift margins, bargaining power and capex timing.
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