a16z's Martin Casado: I underestimated the endurance of scaling laws

peterwildeford · x · 2026-08-26

Martin Casado, Partner at a16z, shares his shift in perspective on AI risks. He previously dismissed the "fast takeoff" doomsday scenario but admits he was wrong because he underestimated how long scaling laws would hold. He argues that pouring $100 billion into training runs, if misapplied (e.g., creating weapons instead of curing cancer), could be very dangerous.

Original post →

More from AGI Musings

AGI Musings channel →