Replication of Epoch benchmark index says AI could beat the human baseline by October 2026
herbiebradley · x · 2026-08-04
A replication of Epoch’s capabilities index suggests that the human baseline across 44 benchmarks could be overtaken by AI models around October 2026.
- The personal replication, called BECI, puts the human score at 166.7 across 44 benchmarks with a human baseline.
- It projects models crossing that line in about two months (roughly October 2026).
- For comparison, Claude 3.5 Sonnet is cited at 130, GPT-5 at 150, and Fable 5 at 161 in mid-June.
- Herbie Bradley argues the “human ceiling” is mostly an artifact of benchmark selection: people design new benchmarks around what current models still fail at, so the ceiling keeps moving.
- The same dynamic happened in 2023 and 2024, meaning older benchmarks are already saturated; next year, both benchmarks and model scores are likely to rise together.
Related event: Study Replication Predicts AI to Surpass Human Baseline by 2026(2 posts)→
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