AI capability prediction model integrates API prices and expert surveys, with interactive weight adjustment
anpaure · x · 2026-08-03
Author @anpaure shares an AI capability prediction model that incorporates API prices, compute trends from Epoch AI, and calibration via a survey of 20 people. An interactive graph allows users to adjust factor weights to explore predictions under different assumptions.
Related event: New Interactive Model Predicts AGI Using Compute and API Pricing(2 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Should PhD Students Use AI? Advisor's Codex Pro-for-All Policy Sparks Debate — examachine · 2026-10-16
- Nature paper uses language models to map single neurons behind human language — raphaelmilliere · 2026-10-16
- 3SUM record falls to O(n^1.921), Lean-verified — but will it yield usable algorithms? — iskander · 2026-10-16
- Terence Tao predicted AI would be a mathematician's copilot in 3 years — reality outran him — abhishekcode42 · 2026-10-16
- Experts Across Fields Estimate 1-16% AI Catastrophe Risk by 2100, Survey Shows — ben_j_todd · 2026-10-16
- Experts put global AI catastrophe risk before 2100 at 5%, LEAP survey finds — ben_j_todd · 2026-10-16