Experts Across Fields Estimate 1-16% AI Catastrophe Risk by 2100, Survey Shows
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-16
Ben Todd highlights a @ResearchFRI survey: estimated probability of AI-caused catastrophe by 2100 is similar across expert groups — computer scientists 2-15%, economists 2-10%, industry 1-9%, policy experts 3-16%.
Todd argues respondents have massively underestimated recent AI progress and are not "AI-pilled": even assuming AI + robotics capable of independently running companies by 2050, they still expect only 3% GDP growth, which he sees as far too low. He also notes the lack of bigger differences by background makes most stories about expert bias hard to maintain.
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