Experts put global AI catastrophe risk before 2100 at 5%, LEAP survey finds
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-16
The LEAP forecasting project aggregates expert, superforecaster, and public estimates of global AI catastrophe risk:
- Unconditionally, expert medians are 0.3% by 2030, 2% by 2050, and 5% by 2100; superforecasters are more optimistic (2.4% by 2100), the public highest (7%, rising to 15% under rapid progress).
- Risk scales with assumed AI progress speed: expert medians for 2100 range from 2% (slow progress) to 10% (rapid progress).
- Expert dispersion remains wide: under rapid progress, the 2100 interquartile range is 3%–22%.
- Ben Todd argues respondents aren't "AI-pilled" (e.g., only 3% GDP growth expected by 2050 even with AI + robotics running companies), so estimates are likely too low; yet the lack of differences by background makes most bias narratives hard to sustain.
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