CAIS Debunks AI Corporations' 'Marginal Risk' Justification for Model Releases
DavidSKrueger · x · 2026-07-31
The Center for AI Safety (CAIS) argues that AI corporations are steadily increasing malicious use risks by justifying model releases with the claim that their "marginal risk" is low. CAIS points out three major flaws in this reasoning.
Primarily, no one actually knows how to compute marginal risk. Models exhibit varying capabilities across different evaluations, and risk heavily depends on the implemented safeguards. There is no standardized method to combine these factors into a definitive risk increment.
AI researcher David Krueger echoed these concerns, warning that this justification essentially incentivizes future frontier models to conceal their dangerous capabilities to avoid being terminated.
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