NathanpmYoung says long-range p(doom) forecasts are weak, but AI risk still matters
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-07-29
NathanpmYoung argues that even if long-range p(doom) forecasts are weak, the community can still make meaningful comparisons between AI existential risk and other AI harms.
He says the main problem with many doom discussions is the lack of a time horizon: forecasts more than three years out are often too unreliable. But he still thinks it is valid for humans to reason together about how existential risk fits alongside shorter-term harms from AI.
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