NeurIPS paper proposes CAPA to show similar models may weaken AI oversight
dhadfieldmenell · x · 2026-07-25
The post points to a NeurIPS paper titled Great Models Think Alike and this Undermines AI Oversight. The authors propose CAPA, a chance-adjusted probabilistic agreement metric for model similarity based on overlap in mistakes. They report three main findings: LLM-as-a-judge scores are biased toward models more similar to the judge, weak-to-strong generalization works better when the weak supervisor and strong student are more different, and model errors are becoming more correlated as capabilities increase, which may weaken AI oversight.
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