AI Futures Project Releases 'AI 2040' Scenario Report
LessWrong 精选 · rss · 2026-07-20
AI Futures Project has released a new large-scale scenario report titled AI 2040: Plan A.
- Core Positioning: Rather than a pure prediction, the report serves as a set of "recommendations," exploring the actionable paths we should take to achieve ideal outcomes.
- Key Premise: The scenario assumes that the US and Chinese governments will take decisive action, pushing the timeline for Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) from a previously predicted 2030 back to 2040.
- Key Features: Emphasizing detail and comprehensiveness, the report unfolds through step-by-step deduction of specific events, avoiding simplistic "doomsday" or "utopia" narratives.
The team plans to actively engage with community feedback and criticisms, and may continue exploring major projects related to forecasting and planning.
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