The dumbest intelligence explosion model says ~1 year — matching sophisticated forecasts
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-07
benjtodd follows up his Anthropic R&D extrapolation: even the dumbest possible intelligence explosion model implies arrival within about a year, and this crude estimate lines up with more sophisticated approaches like those from the AI Futures Project — suggesting independent forecasts of the intelligence explosion timeline are converging.
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