Survey Finds AI Researchers Commonly Estimate ~10% Extinction Risk

A 2024 survey shows AI researchers widely consider a 10% chance of human extinction from AI to be a normal estimate, with such views doubling from the previous survey. Some commentators accept the increase while questioning how extinction versus similarly permanent harms are defined.

2026-11-02 ~ 2026-11-02 · 2 related posts

• 2024 survey of AI researchers finds 10% extinction risk a normal estimate — NathanpmYoung · 2026-11-02
• AI extinction-risk survey doubles; jessi_cata accepts 2x but flags definitional gap — jessi_cata · 2026-11-02