What's your P(doom)? One netizen multiplies RSI odds into 21%
Crayola_God · reddit · 2026-10-20
A Reddit post shares a tweet calculating P(doom) as a chain: RSI happens (80%) × RSI creates ASI (45%) × ASI impossible to align (95%) × ASI impossible to control (60%) = 0.21, inviting others to share their own estimates and sparking debate over the assumptions.
Related event: Reddit User Estimates P(doom) at 21% Using Bayesian Multiplication(2 posts)→
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