Rhodium: OpenAI and Anthropic Out-earn All Chinese AI Models by 10x

Rhodium Group research (reported by CNBC) shows that OpenAI and Anthropic together generate roughly 10x the combined ARR of all Chinese AI model makers, with the real challenge for China's AI sector shifting from compute to monetization.

Confirmed

• Revenue figures (Rhodium, via CNBC): OpenAI ARR around $40B and Anthropic around $65B, versus ByteDance's model business at roughly $4B and Alibaba's Bailian MaaS at $2.3–2.4B.
• @rohanpaulai relays Rhodium's view: all Chinese AI models combined produce only about 10% of OpenAI plus Anthropic's ARR, while China's AI infrastructure spending is set to double this year to $139B, widening the gap between capex and revenue.
• Valuation multiples: Chinese frontier labs are priced at far higher revenue multiples—Moonshot around 167x and DeepSeek around 163x ARR, versus roughly 34x for OpenAI.

Why it matters

• The imbalance between revenue and capex tests the sustainability of China's AI business models; converting massive infrastructure investment into revenue is the key variable.
• The high multiples reflect optimistic growth expectations but also imply bubble risk in Chinese frontier-lab valuations.

2026-09-17 ~ 2026-09-18 · 6 related posts

• CNBC: OpenAI and Anthropic generate roughly 10x the revenue of all Chinese AI models combined — Polymarket · 2026-09-17
• [source] OpenAI and Anthropic earn 10x more than all Chinese AI models combined, per Rhodium — rohanpaul_ai · 2026-09-18
• [source] Rhodium: Chinese AI labs priced at 163-167x ARR vs OpenAI's 34x and Anthropic's 21x — rohanpaul_ai · 2026-09-18
• [source] China's AI monetization gap: all models combined earn ~10% of OpenAI and Anthropic's ARR — rohanpaul_ai · 2026-09-18
• China's AI models earn ~10% of OpenAI and Anthropic's ARR even as capex doubles to $139B — rohanpaul_ai · 2026-09-18

1 near-duplicate retellings: rohanpaul_ai