AI doom debate reignites over risk bets

Researchers debate AI extinction risk: davidmanheim argues sudden capability jumps are the core concern, while archerships calculates that losing AI would need to kill 6 million people daily for Eliezer to win his bet; both agree a 2017 bet now favors Eliezer post-GPT-1.

2026-09-16 ~ 2026-09-16 · 3 related posts

• The 2017 2:1 AI-risk bet looks far better for Eliezer after GPT-1 — archerships · 2026-09-16
• Rogue AI would need to kill 6 million people a day for Eliezer to win his bet — davidmanheim · 2026-09-16
• David Manheim: 'it hasn't happened yet' misses the entire AI doom debate — archerships · 2026-09-16