Toby Ord: 10x more RLVR compute cuts tokens-to-target ~3x; gains may be math-specific
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-09-14
Oxford philosopher Toby Ord replies to Ramez Naam with a rule of thumb he'd noticed: every 10x increase in RLVR compute yields roughly a 3x reduction in the tokens needed to reach the same standard (with paper link).
Naam responds that the dramatic jump between model generations pays for 2-3 orders of magnitude of tokens, and guesses the new model was heavily RL'd on formal math — meaning the gains may be specific to mathematics. Both remain cautious about whether the capability leap generalizes beyond math; "we'll find out eventually."
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