Why P(doom) Prediction Markets Defy Doomsday Logic

Analyst jfoerst argues P(doom) markets are unusual because AI doom scenarios leave survivors to collect payouts; Manifold currently prices 'AI extinct humans by 2030' at just 5% across 13k trades.

2026-09-12 ~ 2026-09-12 · 2 related posts

• Manifold prices AI wiping out humanity by 2030 at just 5%, sparking a debate on doom markets — j_foerst · 2026-09-12
• Why P(doom) prediction markets work where existential-risk bets break down — j_foerst · 2026-09-12