Manifold prices AI wiping out humanity by 2030 at just 5%, sparking a debate on doom markets
j_foerst · x · 2026-09-12
Manifold's market on AI wiping out humanity before 2030 sits at just 5% (13k trades, 915 holders). jfoerst argues prediction markets structurally fail for existential risks — if everyone dies, no one collects, so no rational counterparty exists — yet P(doom) markets remain informative: the mere existence of someone meaningfully taking the other side is itself a signal.
Related event: Why P(doom) Prediction Markets Defy Doomsday Logic(2 posts)→
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