Why P(doom) prediction markets work where existential-risk bets break down
j_foerst · x · 2026-09-12
jfoerst argues P(doom) markets differ from typical existential-risk bets: if everyone dies, no one collects, so no one takes the other side. With P(doom), a credible entity betting against doom is informative in itself. Accounting for interest, the market currently prices doom near 0%, but the price could still move meaningfully.
Related event: Why P(doom) Prediction Markets Defy Doomsday Logic(2 posts)→
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