Forecasters beat expert panel on FrontierMath prediction accuracy

The first LEAP accuracy report showed FrontierMath's 2025 score hit 41%, with Peter Wildeford's 38% forecast outperforming the expert panel, suggesting individuals can beat expert consensus on AI capability predictions.

2026-08-29 ~ 2026-08-29 · 2 related posts

• LEAP panel report: Author predicted 35% on FrontierMath, actual 41% — dioscuri · 2026-08-29
• Author beats experts in forecasting FrontierMath accuracy — peterwildeford · 2026-08-29