Author beats experts in forecasting FrontierMath accuracy
peterwildeford · x · 2026-08-29
Peter Wildeford shared that his personal forecast on AI capabilities outperformed expert groups. Regarding the max accuracy on FrontierMath by end of 2025, he predicted 38%, while experts, superforecasters, and the public averaged 31%, 30%, and 27% respectively. The actual result was 40.7%. This question comes from the newly launched Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP).
Related event: Forecasters beat expert panel on FrontierMath prediction accuracy(2 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Paper: Reinforcement learning in LLMs recruits a functional welfare axis — cephaloform · 2026-08-29
- Tech burnout explained: the reward for hard problems — devanshmehta · 2026-08-29
- Creator's Shift: Writing 1%, Reading 999% in the AI Era — cocktailpeanut · 2026-08-29
- Predicted: GPT Astra to Support Weeks of Autonomous Work — Dr_Singularity · 2026-08-29
- A conversation on the value of a pause, written up on LessWrong — repligate · 2026-08-29
- Are Billion-Dollar AI Crises More Likely Than Human Extinction? — JoshPurtell · 2026-08-29