LEAP panel report: Author predicted 35% on FrontierMath, actual 41%
dioscuri · x · 2026-08-29
The author shared the first accuracy report from the LEAP expert panel, reviewing their AI progress predictions:
- FrontierMath (end-2025): Predicted 35%, actual outcome 41%.
- GenAI-assisted US work hours: Predicted 5%, Fed reports 5.7%.
The author expressed satisfaction with the prediction accuracy.
Related event: Forecasters beat expert panel on FrontierMath prediction accuracy(2 posts)→
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